Our spring 2013 symposium, "Oil Powers a Decade of Growth in Houston: Is There Another to Come?" was held on May 2, 2013 at the Hyatt Regency Hotel, 1200 Louisiana Street, Houston, Texas. Dr. Robert W. "Bill" Gilmer, Director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting was our speaker. Dr. Gilmer has made available his entire PowerPoint slide show presentation along with text for each slide on this publication "CD-Houston". If you would like to order please call our office at 713-743-3869 or you may order online using our publications order page.
The economic outlook for Houston in 2013 remains solid, with the 10-county metro area expected to add around 70,000 jobs. This is only slightly slower than the remarkable 85,000 jobs added locally in 2012. Houston will get a bit less stimulus this year from the U.S. economy, the global economy, and from energy. But the risks to the outlook have grown with the addition of $200 billion in new federal taxes in early 2012, a European recession that will be longer than anticipated, and weak drilling directed to natural gas. The presentation has been presented to a number of local audiences in early 2013 to discuss the economic outlook for Houston. Bottom line: If we avoid the biggest dangers to the outlook, Houston continues on a solid growth path.
This survey, which is prepared by Evert Crawford, researcher for the University of Houston C. T. Bauer College of Business Institute for Regional Forecasting, is published annually. With nearly 1,800 subdivisions in the Houston Metropolitan Area, this survey shows price trends within those subdivisions. Considered the most popular special feature in the Houston Chronicle, these maps and graphs can be viewed here. To search Houston Neighborhood Home Prices" please click here.
We are often asked how the recession and downturn in the national housing market has affected the prices of homes in the Houston area. Home prices for the nation as a whole started dropping in 2006 and continued through 2011. The median home price has now slumped by more than 30 percent and may decline even more in some US cities. It was poor mortgage lending practices that precipitated the downturn in prices.
The Houston housing market has, of course, fared much better than the national housing market. Prices in Houston started declining in July of 2007 and have now fallen approximately 7 percent (based on incomplete data for 2011). You should keep in mind that this figure is for the overall market, not for individual areas.
We are also often asked when home prices will start to recover. Several professional real estate forecasters are predicting that home prices will reach a bottom during the first half of 2012 and start a slow recovery thereafter. Unfortunately, there are still millions of foreclosed properties on the market across the nation; there are millions of properties in which the homeowners are behind on their mortgage payments; and there are millions of homes that are now worth less than the mortgage balances (“underwater”).
The chart below shows a twenty-year history of prices per square foot for single-family homes sold through the Houston Association of Realtors MLS. If you have any questions about Houston area home prices, please email Evert Crawford.
University of Houston
C. T. Bauer College Of Business
Institute for Regional Forecasting
334 Melcher Hall
Houston, TX 77204-6021