2008 Astros Related Baseball Blog

September 29, 2008: Astros: No Playoffs, But Good Season
September 18, 2008: Ooops, Hurricane Ike, Brandon Backe and Paul Faries
September 11, 2008: Lance Berkman: MVP?
September 5, 2008: Roy Oswalt: The Recovery and the HR
August 28, 2008: Astros: The Tejada Trade Revisited
Summer Break
July 6, 2008: Astros: Midseason Report
June 26, 2008: Shawn Chacon and the Rotation
June 18, 2008: Updates: Ben Guez. The Draft and Astros Catchers
June 12, 2008: The Astros, the Catcher and the Draft in the New Millenium
June 6, 2008: MLB Draft Day
May 29, 2008: Jose Valverde: Too Many Innings?
May 22, 2008: Coming Home: Brad Lidge
May 15, 2008: Astros Defense after 25% of the season
May 8, 2008: Astros after 20% of the season
May 1, 2008: Astros and ex-Astros Closers
April 24, 2008: Astros-Padres: Mistakes from the managers
April 17, 2008: Lance Berkman: Hall of Fame?
April 10, 2008: Astros 2008: GO/AO Analysis of Rotation
April 3, 2008: Astros 2008: Expectations


Astros: No Playoffs, But Good Season

Date: September 29, 2008.

The Astros finally could not catch the Brewers and the Mets in the Wild Card Race. No playoffs, but a fun season for the Astros fans. They did better than expected, playing in a surprisingly very tough division. Let's go over the season.

  • What worked
    Lance Berkman: He had outstanding numbers until the last two weeks of the season. Big surprise, he stole 18 bases and was a good defensive 1B, with 14 FRAA. He finished with a 158 OPS+. Very good.
    Carlos Lee: He got injured in early August. Could have been a different story for the Astros in October. He finished with a 143 OPS+, the highest in his career.
    Ty Wigginton: He got injured during the season. He ended up with only 386 at-bats, but finished the season with a 127 OPS+, his highest since his short rookie 2002 season. Big surprise, his defense was average (1 FRAA), an improvement over his mediocre defensive numbers.
    Roy Oswalt: He started very poorly, but he finished the season like the ace of the rotation, as expected. His overall numbers were OK (ERA+ 120), not Oswalt-like though (career ERA+ 139).
    Wandy Rodriguez: He got injured, again. But his pitching was way better (2008 ERA+ 120, 2007 ERA+ 97). He has improved his ERA+ every season. Good trend, though health is a big issue for Wandy.
    Geoff Geary: He produced his best season ever. Career bests in ERA+, RA and WHIP. He makes the Lidge trade look a bit better.
    Randy Wolf: Since the trade that brought him to the Astros, he pitched like it was 2002, his best year.
    Bullpen (Brocail, Byrdak, Hawkins, Sampson, Valverde): Solid numbers for these guys. In 21 IP, Hawkins was extraordinary. Sampson was a very competent reliever.

  • What did not work
    On Base Percentage: Bourn, Ausmus, Tejada, Pence. That's half the batting order. All with OBP under .320. Team OBP: .323 (11th in NL). Moneyball anyone?
    Green light for stealing bases: SB Efficiency: 68.7%. Not good. Pence was 11 for 21, Tejada: 7 for 14, Wigginton: 4 for 10. There is a thin line between a "green" light and a "stupid" light. SB/CS: 114 (5th in NL)/52 (1st in NL).
    J.R. Towles: Good hitting in the minors. Good defensive catcher. But, he could not hit ML hitting. In 146 at-bats, he produced a 34 OPS+, with a .250 OBP.
    3/5 of Original Starting Rotation: Brandon Backe, Shawn Chacon, Chris Sampson -& Runelvys Hernandez : 6.05, 5.04, 6.04 -as a starter- (& 8.38) ERA, respectively. Runelvys Hernandez? That's desperation.
    Michael Bourn: Good speed (SB/CS: 41/10). Decent glove. Pathetic OBP for a leadoff man: .288. He made Biggio's 2007 OBP .285 look not that terrible.
    Bench: With the exception of Mark Loretta, no bench player (Erstad, Blum, Newhan, Quintero) had an OBP over .310. Highest slugging percentage: .418. Weak. Jose Cruz?


    Ooops, Hurricane Ike, Brandon Backe and Paul Faries

    Date: September 18, 2008.

  • Ooops!
    Last week, a reader correctly pointed out that I forgot to mention future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones among the true MVP candidates. The NL MVP list should only include Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Chipper Jones. The updated stats for the three candiates are:

    2008 Production

    AB

    OBP

    SLG

    HR

    SB/CS

    FRAA

    OPS+

    WARP-1

    Albert Pujols

    494

    .458

    .640

    33

    6/2

    12

    187

    12.0

    Lance Berkman

    521

    .426

    .583

    28

    16/4

    13

    164

    10.7

    Chipper Jones

    430

    .467

    .570

    21

    4/0

    3

    175

    9.4

    Chipper Jones has great numbers, too, but Albert Pujols still dominates the MVP race. Chipper Jones has a significantly lower number of ABs, which makes his candidacy weaker. If the Astros make the playoff -a more distant possibility, post-Hurricane Ike-, Lance Berkman can be still be selected.

  • Hurricane Ike
    The Astros were moved to Milwaukee to play two home games against the Cubs, because of Hurricane Ike. For those of you not in Houston or hurricane-prone areas, it's difficult to understand the nerve-breaking experience of having a huge hurricane go over your hometown, leaving you with no power, no water, and a trail of destruction. Instead of doing the sensible thing, and suspending the games, MLB forced the Astros to play the day after Ike. Not surprisingly, the Astros lost both games, getting no-hit and one-hit. Way to go MLB!

  • Brandon Backe and Paul Faries
    Every day Brandon Backe pitches an "important" game, Houstonians are reminded of his incredible performance in Game 5 of the NL Championship Series in 2004. He threw a one hitter against the Cardinals. Yesterday, Brandon Backe was trying to stop the 3-game losing streak of the Astros. A local radio guy asked an Astros beat writer if he saw any signs that Backe had the focus of "that Game 5 performance against the Cardinals."

    I lived in San Diego from 1986 to 1991. In 1991, the Padres had a utility player called Paul Faries, a weak-hitting, good-glove infielder. Once, early in the 1991 season, Paul Faries hit a two-run, two-out triple in the bottom of the 7th inning against the LA Dodgers. The Padres won the game 5-3. Every time Faries, a career .201 hitter, came to bat late in a game, the Padres radio announcers used to remind us that Paul Faries hit that triple (his only triple in 178 AB in San Diego).

    Backe, with a career 4.97 ERA and 87 ERA+, is a bottom of the rotation pitcher. On average, we cannot expect greatness from a 4.97 ERA pitcher. That 2004 one hitter is Backe's only one hitter! (Actually, yesterday, I felt very bad for Backe, he is from Galveston, which was seriously damaged by Hurricane Ike.)

    Give a player enough opportunities and draws from the good part of the distribution will likely occur. The good (lucky) draws can happen at any time. They may happen early in a season -like Paul Faries' triple- or career -like Backe's one hitter. They may happen late in a career. Or, they may never happen. It's just part of randomly drawing from a distribution. We should always expect the average. Unusual realizations will happen, but for bad players they'll be rare.


    Lance Berkman: MVP?

    Date: September 11, 2008.

    The season is almost over. The season awards are coming. For the lovers of statistics, the MVP race in the NL boils down to two players: Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman. There are no other contenders.

    2008 Production

    AB

    OBP

    SLG

    HR

    SB/CS

    FRAA

    OPS+

    WARP-1

    Albert Pujols

    470

    .467

    .655

    33

    6/2

    12

    193

    11.9

    Lance Berkman

    506

    .433

    .601

    28

    16/3

    13

    170

    11.0

    The winner is Albert Pujols. With the exception of stolen bases, Pujols dominates Berkman, though not by much. However, baseball writers love "good" stories and "good" personalities. If the Astros make it to the post-season, Lance Berkman has an excellent chance of beating Pujols. Lance Berkman is also a likable player. It won't be strange to see it. Last year, Jimmy Rollins with his 118 OPS+ beat Albert Pujols' 157 OPS+, Matt Holiday's 150 OPS+, and his own teammate Ryan Howard's 144 OPS+. Go figure the meaning of "value."

    BTW, yesterday, in a Yahoo Sports article, Tim Brown, who also has Pujols as his candidates, also had the following MVP "candidates":
    Carlos Lee: .937 OPS and 143 OPS+
    David Wright: .908 OPS and 139 OPS+
    Ryan Howard: .845 OPS and 114 OPS+
    Carlos Delgado: .864 OPS and 127 OPS+
    Aramis Ramirez: .875 OPS and 125 OPS+
    Ryan Ludwick: .848 OPS and 148 OPS+
    Carlos Beltran: .862 OPS and 127 OPS+
    Adrian Gonzalez: .838 OPS and 127 OPS+

    These players are having good seasons, but they are not in the same ballpark as Albert Pujols or Lance Berkman.


    Roy Oswalt: The Recovery and the HR

    Date: September 5, 2008.

    The Astros are "back" into relative contention. They are six games back from Milwaukee in the Wild Card. The Astros record so far: 74-66. Not bad, for a team Baseball Prospectus expected to be at 72 wins this season. The Astros have been on a tremendous surge since August, with a 24-8 record. But, the most startling recovery has been Roy Oswalt.

    On June 4, Roy Oswalt was 4-6, with 5.38 ERA. Terrible record for an outstanding pitcher. But, the law of large numbers eventually works for good players. Give them enough opportunities and their numbers converge to their expected numbers -in this case, their average, past performance.

    Since coming back from his July's hip injury aside, which forced him to pitch only 1 inning against Washington (1 hit, no runs) and also forced him to miss at least two starts, Roy Oswalt has allowed 4 runs (twice) or less (six times in his last six starts). During this 8-game stretch, Roy Oswalt's record is 6-1.

    But, the most significant change has been the HR allowed by Roy Oswalt. Roy Oswalt allowed only 2 HR during his last 8 games, while he allowed 19 HR, in his first 20 starts.

    According to Tango Tiger, the HR creates 1.4 runs, while a single creates .46 runs, a double .75 runs, and a triple 1.0 runs. Oswalt's 2008 numbers clearly reflect the impact of the HR. Recall that before this season, Roy Oswalt had a career 0.59 HR/9. This season, the HR ball was killing him!

    As a result of this fantastic run, on September 4, 2008, Roy Oswalt has a 13-9 record, with a 3.98 ERA. Now, Roy Oswalt has an outside shot at getting his ERA close to 3. Keep it in the park, Roy!


    Astros: The Tejada Trade Revisited

    Date: August 28, 2008.

    On December 13, 2007, a couple of days before the Mitchell's steroid report came out, implicating SS Miguel Tejada, the Astros dealt for the former AL MVP. The Astros sent to Baltimore outfielder Luke Scott, pitchers Matt Albers, Troy Patton and Dennis Sarfate, and third-base prospect Michael Costanzo for the four-time All-Star shortstop. Let's analyze the second big Ed Wade's trade.

    2008 Production

    AB

    OBP

    SLG

    HR

    SB/CS

    FRAA

    OPS+

    WARP-1

    Miguel Tejada (34)

    525

    .316

    .415

    12

    7/7

    5

    92

    4.5

    Luke Scott (30)

    391

    .366

    .506

    21

    2/2

    5

    128

    5.1

    Luke Scott is having the better season. It can be argued that Miguel Tejada plays more and in a more important position. For that, we have the WARP-1 measure -i.e., wins above replacement player-level 1. WARP-1 indicates the number of wins a player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done, with adjustments only for within the season. According to this number, it's easier to replace Miguel Tejada for the Astros than Luke Scott for the Orioles.

    But it was not a Scott for Tejada trade. The Orioles got 3 pitchers and minor leaguer Michael Constanzo. Constanzo was the Philly prospect acquired in Ed Wade's first big trade, the Brad Lidge trade. Let's also look at the other major leaguers involved in the Tejada trade:
    Matt Albers (25): ERA: 3.49 (ERA+: 125) in 49 IP.
    Troy Patton (22): Didn't pitch this season. Currently in the 60-day DL.
    Dennis Sarfate (27): ERA: 4.92 (ERA+: 89) in 71.3 IP.

    A good production for Matt Albers and a mediocre one from Dennis Sarfate, who struggled as a starter and did OK as a reliever. Troy Patton got injured and never played. Patton is 22. He still has time to produce.

    Overall, not a good trade for the Astros. They got an older and more expensive player in Miguel Tejada, whose production is not what it used to be. Unfortunately, the Astros didn't get the All-Star Miguel Tejada from the 2002-2006 seasons. They got the 2008 model, which has not been worth a Luke Scott.

    Astros: Midseason Report

    Date: July 6, 2008.

    After the 4th of July weekend, the Astros stand at 41-48, a percentage point above last place in the NL Central. The Astros place 11th in the NL. Tough, for the Astros; the NL central is the NL best division. Let's go over the team stats:

    Batting

    OBP

    SLG

    HR

    SB

    OPS+

    Astros Total

    .319

    .409

    90

    80

    97

    Ranking in NL

    14th

    9th

    7th

    3rd

    9th

    Highest in NL

    .359 (CHC)

    .445 (FLA)

    126 (FLA)

    85 (NYM)

    113 (CHC)

    Lowest in NL

    .313 (WSN)

    .357 (WSN)

    57 (SFG)

    23 (PIT)

    82 (WSN)

    Hitting has hit a relative snag for the Astros. At the 20% mark -see below-, the Astros were slugging .424; now, they are slugging .409. This decline coincides with Miguel Tejada's drop in production. During mid-May, Tejada's OPS was around .900. Now, it's a less stellar .764. But, the very poor OBP is the real culprit. Pence, Bourn, Towles, Blum, and Ausmus, in descending order, have been terrible. Still, Berkman, Lee, Tejada and, as a bench player, Erstad have managed to keep the Astros decent, as a hitting team.

    Pitching

    ERA

    K

    BB

    WHIP

    ERA+

    Astros Total

    4.41

    585

    296

    1.43

    95

    Ranking in NL

    11th

    11th

    6th

    11th (tie)

    10th

    Best in NL

    3.70 (LAD)

    694 (SFG)

    252 (ARI)

    1.27 (ARI)

    119 (LAD)

    Worst in NL

    5.15 (PIT)

    508 (PIT)

    356 (SFG)

    1.59 (PIT)

    81 (PIT)

    So far, pitching has remained stable since the 20% mark. ERA+ was 94, then; it is, now, 95. A good bullpen (Byrdak, Geary, and Brocail have been very effective) has helped a poor starting pitching. If Oswalt were 10-5, instead of 7-8, the Astros would be looking at a 44-45 record. Where have you been Roy Oswalt?

    What should we expect from the Astros from here on? Oswalt has been doing better. During his last seven starts, Oswalt shaved 1 earned run from his ERA. If Oswalt continues his recovery and, thus, the starting pitching improves, a .500 season is within range. Otherwise, it'll be more of the same.


    Shawn Chacon and the Rotation

    Date: June 26, 2008.

    Today, Shawn Chacon was put on waivers by the Houston Astros, after he got into a physical altercation with general manager Ed Wade. Chacon started the year pitching well beyond what was expected from him. But, his career low groundouts-to-flyballs and high walk numbers and Minure Maid Park caught up with him. Chacon, sporting a 83 ERA+ in 2008, was a financially low-risk proposition for the Astros, who signed Chacon for only $2 million. We all know that these high risk/high reward bets seldom pay. But, at least, Ed Wade did not make a Woody Williams-type of mistake.

    Let's look at the Astros rotation now:

    Pitcher (ERA+)

    IP

    BB/9

    K/9

    HR/9

    GO/AO

    R. Oswalt (88)

    109.3

    2.23

    6.99

    1.49

    1.43

    W. Rodriguez (163)

    59.3

    2.43

    7.74

    0.76

    1.15

    B. Backe (82)

    95.0

    4.17

    6.35

    1.90

    0.91

    B. Moehler (110)

    63.7

    2.83

    5.65

    1.41

    1.25

    The Astros did not have big expectations for the starting rotation. As pointed out below, on April 3, it is a below average rotation. With two exceptions, what was expected, happened.

    The number one surprise: Roy Oswalt. Oswalt has been a huge disappointment. He went from one of the top pitchers in baseball to one of the mediocre ones. Not that different from Brandon Backe. Ouch! Oswalt's groundouts-to-flyballs (GO/AO) have decreased a bit from his career numbers and, thus, he is giving more home runs than last season, almost one more per 9 IP. Not good.

    The number two surprise: Wandy Rodriguez. Wandy Rodriguez, who got injured again, is proving that last year's improvement is legitimate. Rodriguez is keeping the walks down and the ball inside the ballpark. A welcome change from two years ago. He is turning into a legitimate MLB starter, not just a left-handed starter.

    The Astros rotation is in for more problems. To replace Chacon, the Astros brought 30 year-old Runelvys Hernandez as the fifth starter from AAA. Hernandez is a 87 ERA+ lifetime pitcher and has not pitched since 2006, when he posted a 73 ERA+ in 109.7 innings. Do not expect a major contribution from Hernandez.

    Too bad for the Astros. With decent starting pitching, this team could be a fun club to follow.


    Updates: Ben Guez. The Draft and Astros Catchers

    Date: June 18, 2008

    Update 1: Ben Guez, OF, signed with Detroit
    Drafted in round 19th of the 2008 MLB Draft, Benjamin Guez, OF, signed with the Detroit Tigers. He was assinged to the Oneonta Tigers (low A ball). Benjamin Guez, the son of Finance professor Charles Guez, hit a homerun in his first and only, so far, at-bat for the Oneonta Tigers.

    Update 2: Astros Drafted Catchers
    Since 1980, the Astros have only 8 drafted catchers that made it to the big leagues. (I also include below Tony Eusebio, an amateur free agent signed in 1985).

    Player

    Year Drafted (Round)

    AB

    FRAA

    CS/SB (%Eff)

    Jeff Datz

    1982 (19th)

    10

    1

    1/0 (100%)

    Robbie Wine

    1983 (1st)

    41

    2

    4/17 (19%)

    Dan Walters

    1984 (5th)

    273

    -5

    31/74 (30%)

    Tony Eusebio

    1995 (free agent)

    1739

    -6

    119/283 (30%)

    Craig Biggio

    1987 (1st)

    1667

    -32

    130/434 (23%)

    Scott Servais

    1988 (3rd)

    2493

    -14

    206/556 (27%)

    Ramon Castro

    1994 (1st)

    974

    2

    62/136 (31%)

    Mike Rose

    1995 (5th)

    54

    -4

    4/19 (17%)

    John Buck

    1998 (7th)

    1504

    -4

    77/188 (29%)

    Four serviceable catchers (Tony Eusebio, Scott Servais, Ramon Castro, John Buck) and a future Hall of Famer, as a second baseman, are the highlights of the 25 MLB drafts plus free agent signings since 1980 for the Astros. (I'm stoping at 2004 to allow time for the latest draftees to develop.)

    Now, in order to asses relative quality, I'm assuming the Astros drafted 50 players per draft, the Astros likely drafted 1250 players. Assuming that teams draft 8.4% catcher per draft, it makes a total of 105 catchers drafted. That makes a "success rate" of 7.62% (8/105). Probably, average success rate, given the numbers reported by Callis (2003). But, note that success is defined generously, since nobody will consider Jeff Datz, Robbie Wine, or Mike Rose MLB "regulars."

    In terms of quality, the Astros did not do a wonderful job. None of the catchers is considered an above average defensive catcher (with the exception of Craig Biggio, who was terrible, they all are average or close to average in terms of fielded runs). They are also not great at stopping the running game -the average SB success is around 70%.

    Given the Astros history, here is hoping that 1st round 2008 Astros pick, catcher Jason Castro, devolops into something closer to a Ramon Castro than to a Robbie Wine.


    The Astros, the Catcher and the Draft in the New Millenium

    Date: June 12, 2008

    Since the 2000 MLB Draft, the Astros have selected 38 catchers in the draft. The portfolio approach is very appropriate not only in finance, but in baseball too. Research shows that only 8% of players drafted in the first 10 rounds (of a 50-round, 1,500-player draft) typically develop into big league regulars, and only after a lengthy stay in the minor leagues. (See Callis, J. (2003), "Breaking Down the 1990-97 Drafts.")

    Some interesting facts about the draft:
  • One of every four first-round picks ultimately makes a non-trivial contribution to a major league team, and a mere one in twenty becomes a "star." See, Callis (2003).
  • The proportion of players taken in the first round who make it to the major league roster is significantly greater than from any other round. there is a direct correlation between the round you are drafted in and your probability of making it to a major league roster. The biggest statistical difference is between first-round and second-round selections. After that, the percentage of players drafted in each subsequent round who make it to the majors decreases in a relatively consistent manner. See, Rany Jazayerli, “Doctoring The Numbers, The Draft,” Baseball Prospectus May 13, 2005.
  • College players taken in the first three rounds are about 50% more likely to reach the majors than high school players. See, Rany Jazayerli (2005).
  • The rate of return on players drafted out of college is essentially twice that of high school players. See, Bill James, Baseball Abstract (1985). (Though, this finding, today, is statistically disputed.)
  • The big majority of the draft choices never make it to the majors. Only 23% of the 1990-97 draft choices in the first 10 round made it. See, Callis (2003).
  • 50% of the selections are pitchers, 10% shortstops, 8.4% of the selections are catchers. See, Callis (2003).

    Why do I focus on catcher? The Astros have a recent history of mediocre drafts at the catcher position. The last catcher drafted by the Astros that made it to the majors is John Buck (7th round, 1998). In addition, since 2001, the Astros have used Brad Ausmus as their regular catcher. Ausmus has been considered a good defensive catcher (8 per year FRAA, lifetime) and a well-below average hitter (75 OPS+ lifetime). But after a very good defensive 2001, where Ausmus had 17 FRAA and threw out 47% of base stealers, he started to show signs of aging. In 2002, Ausmus had 10 FRAA and threw out only 32% of base stealres. (Since 2002, Ausmus averages 6.5 FRAA per year and throws out 27% of base stealers.) Thus, starting 2003, it is clear that catcher became a position of need for the Astros.

    I look at the catchers drafted by the Houston Astros in the last 9 drafts. For comparison purposes, in the fourth column, I also include the number of position that had at least one at-bat and, besides, I list the position players with more than 50 AB (AB in parenthesis). In the last column, I include the pitchers that also made it to the majors, for, at least, one inning, and, besides, I list the names of the pitchers that pitched at least 30 innings (IP in parenthesis). An asterick (*) by the round the player was selected means the draftee was a high school player.

    Year

    Selections (by Round)

    Played in MLB

    Other Pos. Players

    Pitchers

    2000

    2: 29*,32

    -

    2: E. Bruntlett (592)

    4: Qualls (314), Burns (52)

    2001

    4: 13,20,21*,22*

    -

    2: C. Burke (1111)

    3: Albers (168), Houlton (157), Saarlos (490)

    2002

    3: 15,26,28

    -

    -

    1: M. McLemore (35)

    2003

    2: 17,25

    -

    1: J. Anderson (89)

    1: J. Hirsh (157)

    2004

    6: 4,10,18,20,40*,49*

    J.R. Towles (157)

    2: Pence (693), Zobrist (295)

    1: -

    2005

    2: 2*,17

    -

    -

    -

    2006

    6: 1*,14,36*,38*,42*,47*

    -

    -

    -

    2007

    5: 11 *,19,21,25,26

    -

    -

    -

    2008

    8: 1,15,20,34*,35,39,43*,44

    -

    -

    -

    Total

    38 (14 from HS)

    1

    7 (5)

    10 (7)

    Since it takes around 4 years for a drafted player to develop, I look at the 2000-2004 numbers. In this period, the Astros selected 17 catchers. Only one made it to the majors, J.R. Towles (20th round selection), with only 157 AB in a, so-far, failed experiment as the everyday catcher. That makes a 5.9% (1/17) "success" rate.

    Note that, given the research mentioned above, the Astros under-drafted the catcher position from 2000-2004: only 6.8% of the draftees were catchers. Moreover, the Astros did not "invest" heavily on catchers, either. They did not use any pick in the first 10 rounds of the draft until 2004. Overall, a very slow reaction to the expected and actual decay of Brad Ausmus' performance (Ausmus' 2004 performance was terrible: 0 FRAA, 26% of base stealers caught, with a 63 OPS+. Ouch!). The Astros did become serious after 2004, selecting 21 more catchers (10.2% of the draft choices) and using two number 1 picks (2006 and 2008) and a number 2 pick (2005).

    Now, I look at the overall Astros draft performance. Usually, there are 50 rounds, that makes 250 selections for the Astros. According to the above totals, only 7 position players and 10 pitcher drafted by the Astros made it to the big leagues. That makes a 7.2% (18/250) "success rate." If we include only the "significant" contributions defined above (clearly, a generous definition), the success rate drops to 5.2% (13/250). Overall, not a great performance for the Astros. It is not a surprise, given that the Astros farm system is considered a weak one. It will take time and good drafts to fix it.

    As a final note, the Astros seem to pay attention to Bill James' views regarding college players. They selected 63% of catchers out of college.


    MLB Draft Day

    Date: June 6, 2008

    "The Tampa Bay Rays select with the number 1 draft pick Timothy Beckham, SS, from Giffin High School, Georgia," Commissioner Bud Selig said yesterday. An expected pick, given that Timothy Bechkam is considered a bona fide five-tool player.

    A little bit later, yesterday, the Houston Astros selected with the number 10 draft pick, Jason Castro, catcher, from Standford University. The third catcher taken, Castro is a good hitting catcher. A lefty too. A lot of experts thought it was a reach, drafting Castro in this slot. Many experts were expecting the Astros to take Justin Smoak, 1B, from South Carolina, considered an almost ready for Major League prospect. But, after the so-far-failed J.R. Towles' experiment, and the very weak hitting performance of Brad Ausmus in the past couple of seaons, including this one, the Astros need one good hitting catcher in a hurry.

    But, the next day brought the most expected selection for the members of the Department of Finance at the University of Houston. The Tigers selected with the 583th pick, in the 19th round, Benjamin Guez, son of Finance professor Charles Guez. Benjamin Guez, a junior, played the outfield for William and Mary University, in Virginia.

    Benjamin Guez started in center field at the 2007 Cape Cod League All-Star Game last summer. Benjamin Guez posted an outstanding season this spring for the William and Mary Tribe. A first-team all-conference selection, Guez ranked ninth nationally in runs scored and 30th in hits at the conclusion of the regular season. The Lamar High School graduate also finished the year ranked among the top 10 in the Colonial Athletic Association in batting average (.390), slugging percentage (.662), on-base percentage (.470), total bases (153) hits (90) and runs scored (75). He ranked just outside the league’s top 10 in home runs (13), doubles (18) and stolen bases (15). His 75 runs scored are the second most in a season by a Tribe player. In three seasons at the William and Mary, Benjamin Guez registered a .319 career batting average with 15 home runs, 85 RBI, 125 runs scored, 36 doubles and 30 stolen bases.

    If you think that the 19th round is too low and Benjamin has little chance to make it big... well, from a probabilistic point of view, you're right. (To give the reader an idea, in the 1993 Alex Rodriguez/Derrek Lee/Torii Hunter draft, only 10 position players made it to the major leagues that were drafted between the 19th and the 29th round. And only 3 of them -1B Richie Sexson, C Paul Lo Duca, and C Chad Moeller- had more than 300 AB in the majors.) But, there are many, many notable exceptions. The draft is not a science.

    The great second baseman Ryne Sandberg was selected in the 20th round (511th pick overall) by the Phillies in 1978. He is the lowest-drafted player to be elected to the Hall of Fame.

    The Toronto Blue Jays drafted another future Hall of Famer second baseman, Jeff Kent, in the 20th round, in 1989. Kent is the lowest-drafted active player to win a Most Valuable Player award.

    The Detroit Tigers drafted another future Hall of Famer, RHP John Smoltz in 1985 in the 22nd round. Smoltz is the lowest-drafted active pitcher to win a Cy Young Award. The Tigers have a very good eye for second day draft picks!

    And, of course, the jewel of the 1988 draft was future Hall of Famer catcher Mike Piazza, who was selected in round 62nd. Before Mike Piazza, MLB teams selected 157 catchers! Piazza, though, was not drafted as catcher, but as a first baseman. Interestingly, the first catcher drafted that year was Stan Royer by the Oakland Athletics. Royer had 164 major league at-bats -- after being converted to a first baseman.

    Other good 19th round+ picks include, in the past 25 years:
    1983 - RHP Carl Willis, Tigers, 23rd round, 9 seasons, 99 ERA+ (1 World Series ring).
    1984 - LHP Jeff Fassero, Cardinals, 22nd round, 16 seasons, 121-124 in 720 games, 107 ERA+.
    1985 - INF Randy Velarde, White Sox, 19th round, 16 seasons, 101 OPS+.
    1986 - C Chris Hoiles, Tigers, 19th round, 10 seasons, 119 OPS+.
    1987 - 3B Scott Brosius, Athletics, 20th round, 11 seasons, 94 OPS+ (3 World series rings, 1998 WS MVP).
    1988 - RHP Woody Williams, Blue Jays, 28th round, 15 seasons, 132-116 in 424 games, 102 ERA+.
    1989 - RHP Tim Worrell, Padres, 20th round, 14 seasons, 48-59 in 678 games, with 81 saves, 107 ERA+.
    1990 - C Jorge Posada, Yankees, 24th round, 14 seasons, 124 OPS+ (3 World series rings).
    1991 - RHP Albie Lopez, Indians, 20th round, 11 seasons, 47-58 in 297 games, 95 ERA+.
    1992 - INF Rich Aurilia, Rangers, 24th round, 14 seasons, 100 OPS+.
    1993 - 1B Richie Sexson, Indians, 24th round, 12 seasons, 120 OPS+.
    1994 - INF Placido Polanco, Cardinals, 19th round, 11 seasons, 99 OPS+.
    1995 - 3B Mike Lowell, Yankees, 20th round, 11 seasons, 110 OPS+ (2 World Series rings).
    1996 - DH/1B Travis Hafner, Rangers, 31st round, 7 seasons, 144 OPS+.
    1997 - SS David Eckstein, Red Sox, 19th round, 8 seasons, 112 SB, 89 OPS+ (2 World Series rings).
    1998 - LHP Mark Buehrle, White Sox, 38th round, 9 seaons, 110-81 in 272 games, 120 ERA+ (1 World Series ring).
    1999 - RHP Jason Frasor, Tigers, 33rd round, 5 seasons, 12-18 in 253 games, 116 ERA+.
    2000 - OF Jason Bay, Expos, 22nd round, 6 seasons, 131 OPS+.
    2001 - OF Andre Ethier, Athletics, 37th round, 3 seasons, 107 OPS+.
    2002 - LHP Chuck James, 20th round, 4 seaons, 24-17 in 62 games, 100 ERA+.
    2003 - RHP Jeff Karstens, Yankees, 19th round, 2 seasons, 3-5 in 15 games, 80 ERA+.
    2004 - LHP Jonathan Sanchez, Giants, 27th round, 3 seasons, 3-3 in 73 games, 93 ERA+.

    Here is hoping that Houston native Benjamin Guez belongs to this notable group of second day finds. Good luck, Benjamin!


    Jose Valverde: Too Many Innings?

    Date: May 29, 2008

    Jose Valverde is coming back with a fury. Jose Valverde struggled in April, giving 10 earned runs in 14 innings. But, May has been a completely different story. Valverde pitched 14 innings, giving up only two earned runs. A good turn around. But, he has been used too much. Let's compare him with the top 3 closers in IP in the NL.

    Pitcher

    IP

    G

    SV

    ERA

    Jose Valverde

    27

    26

    15

    4.00

    Kerry Wood

    27.2

    26

    12

    3.25

    Jon Rauch

    26.2

    26

    11

    2.38

    Median (B. Lyon)

    22

    23

    11

    1.64

    lowest (T. Hoffman)

    16.2

    17

    10

    4.86

    In the distribution of NL closers, Jose Valverde is up there in IP and games. Valverde is on pace to pitch 78 innings. A lot, for someone who has never pitched more than 66.1 innings, something he did in 2005. Note that Kerry Wood was a starter and, thus, should be used to high inning counts. Jon Rauch, a middle relief pitcher before this season, in the past two seasons has pitched 91.1 and 87.1 innings. If I were the Astros, I'd be monitoring rookie manager Cecil Cooper's use of Valverde. Hopefully, Cooper is not Dusty Baker.


    Coming Home: Brad Lidge

    Date: May 22, 2008

    Yesterday, Brad Lidge came back to Houston. To my surprise, when Brad Lidge came out to save the game for the Phillies, half of the Astros crowd booed him. Amazing! This is not soccer! An ex-Astros player, who loved the club, had two fantastic seasons (2004 and 2005) and was dealt against his wishes. Brad Lidge did have a bad 2006 season, which I partly blame on the 2006 World Baseball Classic and a very poor managing job by former manager Phil Garner. In 2007, Brad Lidge started to look like the Brad Lidge of old. But, some frustrated fans with a bad 2007 Astros team, the press, and Houston talk radio hosts created the environment for the Brad Lidge trade to the Phillies. Right now, the Lidge-Bourn trade is looking like a one-sided trade.

    Season

    SV

    SVO

    HR

    WHIP

    K

    BAA

    ERA

    ERA+

    2008

    12

    12

    0

    0.95

    24

    .137

    0.43

    1023

    2007

    19

    28

    9

    1.25

    88

    .219

    3.36

    131

    162 Game Avg

    22

    27

    6

    1.185

    99

    .209

    3.16

    138


    Brad Lidge in 2007 had quite an "average" -i.e., relative to his career numbers- season. Obviously, he did not save 9 games, producing a save ratio of 68%, not a quality closer's number -the average save ratio for MLB is around 70%. But, even very good closers go through rough periods. To put things into perspective, the great Dennis Eckersley converted 51 of 54 in 1992, winning the Cy Young Award, with a 1.91 ERA (and 196 ERA+). The next season, in 1992, the Oakland closer had 36 saves in 46 save opportunities.

    Todd Jones, the ex-Astros pitcher and closer, wrote a piece in Sporting News regarding how bad Phil Garner was managing the Astros bullpen. According to Todd Jones the worst thing you can do for a closer -or any pitcher- is constantly changing his role, something Garner did several times with Brad Lidge in 2006/2007. Why was Brad Lidge booed by some Astros fans? Again, amazing! Phil Garner, when he shows up around town, should be the one booed.


    Astros Defense after 25% of the season

    Date: May 17, 2008.

    Last week, I went over the offense and pitching numbers. This week, I will go over the defense, where I focus on FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average). To put things in perspective, the 2008 Astros were expected to be a better defensive team that the 2007 version, that produced -30 FRAA, with Carlos Lee with -18 FRAA and Craig Biggio -12 FRAA. Just getting rid of Biggio's terrible defense was going to be an improvement.

    This season the Astros as a team have produced -1 FRAA. Since the 2008 NL mean is 0.125 FRAA, with a standard error of 4.19 FRAA, along with a 2008 NL median of -1.5 FRAA, the Astors are showing an average defense. They are far from the best (Cubs with 31 FRAA) and far from the worst (Pirates with -31 FRAA). The Astros are right in the middle of the 25-75 interquartile range (5 FRAA,-5 FRAA). Clearly, the Astros defense is improved over the 2007 team; but I was expecting a slightly better performance, with a positive FRAA number. Let's look at the individual players:

    Players with FRAA=2: Lance Berkman, Geoff Blum, Hunter Pence, J.R. Towles
    Players with FRAA=1: Michael Bourn, Mark Loretta, Ty Wigginton
    Players with FRAA=0: Brad Ausmus, Jose Cruz, Darin Erstad, Tomas Perez, Humberto Quintero
    Players with FRAA=-1: Brian Moehler
    Players with FRAA=-2: Miguel Tejada
    Players with FRAA=-4: Carlos Lee, Kaz Matsui

    With the exception of Kaz Matsui, not a big surprise comes from the above numbers. None of the Astros players is considered an excellent defensive player. Now, Kaz Matsui's numbers are very surprising. Matsui has been a good defensive player, whose FRAA production in the five seasons before this one were: 3, 4, 4, 4, and 17. Wow! From very good to Carlos Lee's level. That's a drop!

    Looking back at last season, taking the -30 FRAA produced by Biggio and Lee, the rest of the Astros team was, on average, "average." Not that far from what the Astros defense is in 2008. This season, a simple projection would put the Astros on -4 FRAA, with Carlos Lee producing -16 FRAA, more or less what is expected from him.

    Where the off-season moves good moves for the Astros defense? I will look at the current FRAA of the players (in Biggio's case, the 2007 FRAA pro-rated production) involved in the lineup changes:
  • Miguel Tejada replacing Adam Everett at SS (-2 FRAA vs. 3 FRAA -in only 56 AB): Not good. Big advantage for 2007, as expected.
  • Michael Bourn replacing Luke Scott in the outfield (1 FRAA vs. 3 FRAA): A small advantage for 2007, a mild surprise.
  • Kaz Matsui replacing Craig Biggio at 2B (-4 FRAA vs. -3 (=-12/4) FRAA): A slight advantage for 2007, a huge surprise.
  • J.R. Towles replacing Brad Ausmus at C (1 FRAA -in 83 AB- vs. 0 FRAA -in 50 AB): A slight advantage for 2008, probably, a mild surprise.

    I never thought that any of the off-season moves had defense in mind. Bringing Matsui to replace Biggio should have helped the defense. But, amazingly, it's not working out, so far. I think Matsui will do better, though. But, obviously, getting rid of Everett has to be a move to get more offense, since Everett is considered an amazing defensive SS. But, given that Everett did not play much last season and Loretta (-6 FRAA) played SS, I didn't think that Miguel Tejada was going to be such a huge change from 2007. And it has not been, as expected. At catcher, I am a bit surprised. I was expecting a decrease in FRAA at C, this season, since Ausmus was still a good defensive catcher in 2007. I was expecting a better arm, with Towles, something that it has shown already (last season, Astros catchers threw out only 23% of base stealers, this season they are throwing out 35%).

    Overall, I am surprised that the Astros, defensively, are not doing better. Where have you gone, Kaz Matsui?.


    Astros after 20% of the season

    Date: May 8, 2008.

    After 34 games, a little bit more than 20% of the season is gone. The Astros are 18-16, third in the NL Central, 3.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals. The Astros started 3-9, and then, put an impresive 15-7 mark. Relative to last year, this 18-16 Astros team is not bad. Let's look at the team stats.

    Batting

    OBP

    SLG

    HR

    SB

    OPS+

    Astros Total

    .315

    .426

    40

    32

    98

    Ranking in NL

    14th

    6th

    3rd

    3rd

    8th

    Highest in NL

    .373 (STL)

    .460 (ARI)

    51 (PHI)

    38 (SFG)

    122 (ATL)

    Lowest in NL

    .302 (SDP)

    .339 (SDP)

    20 (WSN)

    8 (SDP)

    81 (WSN/SDP)

    So far, a very close to average hitting performance, with a 98 OPS+, which, surprisingly, is the same 2007 OPS+. I was expecting a better offense this year. Stolen bases, not reflected on OPS+, has been a big improvement over 2007, though. Overall, good power numbers, but terrible OBP. A great season from Lance Berkman (209 OPS+), a very good season from Miguel Tejada (137 OPS+), and good -i.e., as expected- season from Carlos Lee (122 OPS+) is sunk by the terrible numbers of Bourn, Loretta, Blum, Ausmus and Cruz, all with an OPS+ lower than 60. I'm surprised that Cruz is still on the team (8 OPS+).

    Pitching

    ERA

    K

    BB

    WHIP

    ERA+

    Astros Total

    4.40

    235

    117

    1.45

    94

    Ranking in NL

    11th

    5th

    7th

    11th

    10th (tie)

    Best in NL

    3.35 (ARI)

    272 (CIN)

    105 (STL)

    1.22 (ARI)

    124 (ARI)

    Worst in NL

    5.29 (PIT)

    179 (FLA)

    149 (COL)

    1.59 (PIT)

    79 (PIT)

    So far, pitching has been as expected, with an 94 ERA+, a bit better than last season (93 ERA+). Oswalt is not having his usual very good numbers, but, unexpectedly, Chacon and Wandy Rodriguez have been very effective. The rest of the rotation (Backe, Sampson, and replacement Cassel) has been as expected, mediocre to bad. Valverde struggled early, but has improved lately. He should be fine, as expected. The rest of the bullpen, on average, has been solid, as expected.

    Looking forward, what can we expect from the Astros? So far, the strength of schedule is .501. That means, the numbers have meaning. I expected a better offense. But, a very slow start is probably a good explanation for the skewed offensive numbers. During the first 12 games, the Astros scored 3.58 runs per game. During the next 22 games, the Astros scored 5.41 runs per game. (For comparison, last season, the Astros scored 4.46 runs per game.) While I don't expect the runs scored to be at the 5.4 level for the rest of the season, it should be closer to 5, than to 4. The pitching has been as expected. If Oswalt improves, as I fully expect, and Chacon and Wandy Rodriguez keep their numbers in the "decent-to-good" category, it could be a winning season.


    Astros and ex-Astros Closers

    Date: May 1, 2008.

    Jose Valverde has blown 3 saves. Houston fans are concerned. This season, closer problems are not unusual. Some of the very best in the game's history, Trevor Hoffman and Eric Gagne, have mightly struggled, blowing 2 of 7 and 4 of 13 opportunities, respectively. Kerry Wood, in his first season as closer, has blown 3 saves, in 7 chances. Manuel Corpas, Colorado's excellent closer in last year's World Series run, has blown 4 out 8 saves. Ouch! Even Saito, who is sporting a 2.19 ERA, has blown 2 out of 6 save opportunities.

    But, let's concentrate at the recent performance of three Astros related closers: Billy Wagner, Brad Lidge, and Jose Valverde.

    Pitcher

    Season

    IP

    ERA

    ERA+

    K

    HR

    GO/AO

    SV

    SVO
    Billy Wagner

    07

    68.1

    2.63

    162

    80

    6

    .86

    34

    39

    08

    12

    0

    inf

    12

    0

    .60

    6

    7
    Brad Lidge

    07

    67

    3.36

    131

    88

    9

    1.11

    19

    27

    08

    12

    0

    inf

    13

    0

    .64

    7

    7
    Jose Valverde

    07

    64.1

    2.66

    177

    78

    7

    .82

    47

    54

    08

    13

    6.92

    58

    18

    4

    .47

    5

    8

    Billy Wagner has been very, very consistent over the years. His trade to Philadelphia was a one-sided trade -the Brad Lidge trade may turn out like this too. Ed Wade picked Houston's pockets! Trading Billy Wagner was likely a cost-cutting move; though, it is also likely the trade was done because Astros owner did not like the outspoken Billy Wagner. Billy Wagner remains one of the reliable closers in the game.

    Right now, Brad Lidge is having an excellent season. Last year, he struggled in his closer role for the Astros, blowing 8 chances out of 27. His overall 2007 numbers were, however, good. But, after giving a towering homerun to Albert Pujols in game 5th of the 2005 NLCS and a bad 2006 season, Houston fans and management lost patiente with Lidge. A couple of analysts say that ex-Astros manager Phil Gardner mishandled him. Right now, Lidge is looking "lights out" again.

    Jose Valverde had the best season of the group in 2007. He came to Houston to replace Lidge. This season, Jose Valverde is struggling. Maybe a mental thing, since his strike out numbers are very good. Cecil Cooper, even "rested" Valverde for one game. Hopefully, Cooper will not play musical chairs with Valverde, like Gardner did with Lidge last season. My main concern with Valverde is his relatively low ground-out to fly-out ratio (GO/AO). Though, it is not unusual for closers to have a ratio lower than 1, Valverde's numbers are on the low side of the distribution (career GO/AO is .74). In Minute Maid Park, this might be dangerous.

    It's a long season. Valverde's history as a closer is a short one: in 6 seasons, he saved 103 games, blowing 19 saves. More than half of these numbers come from last and this season. Closers go through droughts. Let's be patient. Paraphrasing John Lennon, let's give Jose Valverde a chance.


    Astros-Padres: Mistakes from the managers

    Date: April 24, 2008.

    Last Tuesday, I went to see the Astros-Padres games. Astros won 11-7. The fun part of going to the game, for me, is following the movement of the players in the field and analyzing each situation and move. Some days, you get to see the good, the bad, and the ugly. Tuesday was one of those games. Tejada, great, 4-5, 2 RBI, 2 runs. Pence hit a two-run two-out HR off Peavy. Not bad. Good effort from Backe. The bad, some decision from the managers, the ugly, the relieve performance of Brocail, Thatcher, and Bell.

    Backe out-dueled a sub-par Jake Peavy, who gave two hits to ex-teammate Blum that ruined Peavy's night. Brandom Backe's good effort (7.0 IP, 93 pitches, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 HR) was ruined in the 8th inning by Cecil Cooper's poor decision making.

    First, let's go back to the bottom of the 7th inning. The game is 4-3 Astros. San Diego's manager, Bud Black, brings in Joe Thatcher, who has struggled the whole year, with a 8.0 ERA in 9 innings. San Diego has a good bullpen, Thatcher has not been in the "good" part. Why bring Thatcher? I assume because Thatcher is a left handed pitcher, though this year, his stats are equally bad against righties and lefties. Thatcher retires Cruz on a pop-out and, then, Matsui hits the ball hard for a double, Erstad, who has been terrible this year, singles to left, Matsui moves to third. The game is still 4-3.

    Tejada bats. A DP saves the day. A strike out helps. Tejada seldom strikes out. Tejada has hit into only 1 DP in the season. Also, Tejada had a good game and hits equally well from both sides of the plate. The situation is not looking good for Thatcher. But, Black keeps Thatcher in. Tejada gets a single to center. Matsui scores, Erstad to third. The game is, now, 5-3. Why not change pitchers? Black keeps Thatcher in, even though Berkman hits well from both sides of the plate. Black may be hoping for a strike out -Berkman rarely hits into DPs. Berkman hits a sacrifice fly. Up to Berkman, again, you understand Black's decision. Let's try to get Thatcher back on track. It's a long season. But, now, the game is 6-3. It looks out of reach, given the Padres weak hitting lineup. Lee comes in, crashes the ball for a run-scoring double. Now, Bud Black relieves the struggling Thatcher. Padres pitcher Rusch gets a ground out for the final out. Why leave Thatcher to face Berkman and Lee? A mistery.

    But, don't worry Bud. Cecil will help you. Let's go back to the 8th inning. Now, the Astros are up 7-4. Cecil Cooper brings in Doug Brocail to face his ex-team. No problem there. Up to that night, Brocail's ERA was 0.82 in 10.2 IP, with no HR. First batter Crabbe fights for a single. Crabbe, a bad hitter, had a good at-bat against Brocail. Second batter, Giles, hits Brocail very hard for a double. Third batter, McAnulty hits a long HR. The game is 7-6. I understand Cooper's decision to leave Brocail in the game up to this point. Let him get out of the jam. But, with no out and Adrian Gonzalez, a good hitter, coming to bat, the crowd was pleading for a pitching change. I agree with the crowd there, the last two batters hit Brocail hard. Copper leaves Brocail in. Gonzalez hits a triple, which could have been a HR.

    Now, Kouzmanoff is coming to bat with nobody out and a man on third. Time for a change? Not for Cooper. Brocail faces Kouzmanoff and gets a hard-hit sharp grounder back to him, for an out, after an acrobatic grab. It could've been a single down the middle. Why did Coooper leave Brocail after four consecutive hits, three of them, in a row, hit very hard? It makes no sense. Now, he brings Valverde to save the day. Valverde intentionally walks Edmonds and gets Greene to hit into a sacrifice fly. Game: 7-7. Finally, Valverde strikes out Bard to end the inning. Backe's good effort will not come with a W, due to Cooper's mistake. Bud Black is saved!


    Lance Berkman: Hall of Fame?

    Date: April 17, 2008.

    Last season, Lance Berkman had a subpar season. He started very slow, by this time, last year he was hitting .184, with zero doubles and 1 HR. Ouch! He ended up hitting .278, with a .386 OBP, and .896 OPS (131 OPS+). Not bad. Last season, Carlos Lee, Houston's 2007 big free agent acquisition, hit .303, with a .354 OBP, and .882 OPS (126 OPS+). Lance Berkman, counting his first 8 full seasons, is having an extraordinary career. Let's look at Berkman's OPS+ distribution and compare it with Bagwell's and Jim Thome's, considering only the first 8 seasons (130+ AB) of their careers. In addition, I add, for a HOF yardstick, the first eight seasons of the last BBWAA-elected HOF first baseman: Eddie Murray. (I can add, also, Tony Perez, also considered a first baseman, elected to the HoF the year before Eddie Murray; but Tony Perez was a early on a third baseman, the switch to first base occurred later in his career. Moreover, Tony Perez would be "eaten alive" by any of the guys considered here.)

    OPS+ Distribution

    OPS+

    100-120

    120-140

    140-160

    160+

    SB/CS

    HR

    FRAA
    Lance Berkman (8)

    146

    0

    3

    3

    2

    49/31

    256

    -23
    Jeff Bagwell (91-98 )

    155

    0

    2

    3

    3

    173/47

    221

    38
    Jim Thome (93-00)

    147

    0

    3

    4

    1

    14/10

    230

    -5
    Eddie Murray (77-84)

    144

    0

    3

    5

    0

    47/18

    227

    20

    First, for evaluation purposes, we need to consider that the median OPS+ for a BBWAA-voted HoF member is 130. Second, we also need to consider that the median OPS+ for a 500 HR Club member is 150, with a 125-169 interquantile range. (Barring injury, Berkman has a shot at joining the 500 HR Club, and, thus, it should be Berkman's reference group.) Now, let's look at Lance Berkman's numbers.

    Lance Berkman's career, in offense, is up to a very good start, with very similar numbers to Jim Thome's, though not up to Bagwell's first eight seasons. Berkman has more HR, but Bagwell's early career was at HR unfriendly Astrodome. Bagwell was a decent base stealer, stealing 158 bases, with a 73% effectiveness. Nor Thome (14 SB/58%), nor Berkman (49/61%) will be considered effective base stealers.

    Lance Berkman's defensive career is, definitely, not stellar. Jeff Bagwell was considered a well above average defensive first baseman, while Berkman is considered an average defensive first baseman, similar to Jim Thome. (Berkman's total FRAA numbers are skewed by his early play in the outfield, where he had an atrocious 2002 season, with -19 FRAAs.)

    So, is Lance Berkman in his path to the Hall of Fame? Since, HoF voters tend to mainly focus on offensive production, Lance Berkman has a good chance. Right now, Berkman's OPS+ numbers fit very well with the average OPS+ of a HoF member. (Very similar to HoFer Eddie Murray.)

    But, my reading of baseball writers is that Jim Thome will have a difficult time getting into Coopperstown. Similarly, I sense that it may take several votes, maybe five -maybe ten?-, for Bagwell's nomination to get steam and, finally, get voted in. (I hope I'm wrong. I believe that both Jim Thome and Jeff Bagwell should get into the HoF. See my entries from last year.) Lance Berkman, then, will also have a difficult time getting into the HoF. But, if Berkman gets a couple of MVPs, things will be different. BBWAA voters love awards.


    Astros 2008: GO/AO Analysis of Rotation

    Date: April 10, 2008.

    During the Hunsicker years, the Houston Astros had rotations with a high groundballs to flyouts ratio (GO/AO). Last year, Tim Purpura's signing of Woody Williams was a departure from this philosophy and a big mistake. Let's look at the 2007 Astros starting pitchers' relevant stats. For Chacon, with a short 2007 season, I also include career stats (in parenthesis). For Backe, I report his last complete season, 2005, along with career stats (in parenthesis).

    Pitcher (ERA+)

    IP

    BB/9

    K/9

    HR/9

    GO

    AO

    GO/AO
    R. Oswalt (138)

    212.0

    2.55

    6.54

    0.59

    299

    178

    1.79
    Chris Sampson (96)

    121.7

    2.21

    3.77

    1.48

    179

    127

    1.38
    W. Rodriguez (81)

    182.7

    3.05

    7.78

    1.08

    186

    191

    1.03
    B. Backe (89 -05; 95 -career)

    149.3 (361.7)

    4.03 (4.13)

    5.85 (5.85)

    1.15 (1.19)

    167 (389)

    176 (440)

    1.02 (0.96)
    S. Chacon (110 -07; 96 -career)

    96.0 (848.3)

    4.50 (4.69)

    7.41 (6.07)

    0.84 (1.30)

    110 (919)

    94 (1020)

    1.26 (0.96)

    Roy Oswalt, Chris Sampson and Wandy Rodriguez fit the high GO/AO profile, probably needed to survive in Minute Maid Park. (Wandy Rodriguez's last season GO/AO is misleading, he has a 1.24 career G0/AO number.)

    Brandon Backe and Shawn Chacon have similar career numbers. Relevant for the Astros, they both have a low, though not terrible, GO/AO. Also, they both give a high number of walks, which can be trasnformed into runs easier with flyout pitchers. (What killed Wandy Rodriguez before the 2007 season was the walks.) Backe, with his recent injury history, is an unknown. Chacon, in particular, since leaving Colorado in 2005, has had 1.01, 0.63, 0.85, and 1.26 GO/AO numbers, with small IP counts behind those numbers. High BB and low GO/AO stats is something the Astros should worry about. With Backe and Chacon in the rotation, it might bite them hard.

    Note: Based on the GO/AO alone, I did not understand why the Astros went after Randy Wolf in the off-season. His career GO/AO is 0.88, almost in the Woody Williams' neighborhood. Wolf will do fine in San Diego, though; the park will hide his low GO/AO.


    Astros 2008: Expectations

    Date: April 3, 2008.

    2007 Astros record: 73-89.(Runs Scored: 723. Runs Allowed: 813. Average NL Runs: 763. Pythagorean W-L: 72-90)
    Baseball Prospectus's 2008 prediction: 72-90 (ouch!)(RS: 738, RA: 820).

    Finally, the 2008 season is here. The Astros started 1-2 -though, they were one strike away from 0-3, showing a weak rotation. GM Ed Wade significantly changed the composition of the lineup and bullpen. Let's look back at what happened during the Winter.

    Hitting
    Additions: Michael Bourn, Miguel Tejada, Kaz Matsui, Darin Erstad, Geoff Blum, Jose Cruz, Tomas Perez. J.R. Towles, rookie catcher. Bourn, Matsui and Tejada are the main additions. The others, decent bench/platoon players, at best. Michael Bourn, from Philly, speed, decent OBP. Kaz Matsui had a good defensive season, with 17 FRAA, and a below average offensive season, with 87 OPS+. Miguel Tejada, last season had a below average defense, with -14 FRAA, an a decent, above average offense, with a 109 OPS+.

    Subtractions: Craig Biggio, Luke Scott, Chris Burke, Mike Lamb, Orlando Palmeiro. Lamb and Scott, with 112 and 119 OPS+, respectively, will be missed. The others were decent bench/platoon players, at best.

    Overall, Bourn's OBP should be a huge improvement over Craig Biggio's at the leadoff spot. Bourn defense could be good. But, we'll see, right now, it's an unknown. Matsui improves over Craig Biggio at second base. Matsui, however, has a lifetime 82 OPS+. Tejada is an improvement on offense over any Astros SS of the recent past, but also a significant drop in defense over Adam Everett. I don't expect Miguel Tejada's average 125 OPS+ from 2002-2006. J.R. Towles is a project. Ed Wade promoted him to main catcher. Should be an upgrade in offense over anemic Brad Ausmus. May throw a runner or two out, also an improvement over weak-armed Ausmus. Health has been an issue for Towles. We'll see. But, I like promoting young players.

    The projected 2008 lineup is better. Berkman, Lee, Tejada, Pence and Wigginton, all come with above average OPS+. Bourn an unknown, though promising. Also, on the bright side, Biggio, Everett, Lane, and Ausmus, with low OPS+ are gone from the everyday lineup. Addition by substraction. The defense will not be a strong point (only Matsui and, potentially Bourn and Towles, could be considered above average on defense). The loss of Everett will be felt on defense.

    Pitching
    Additions: Shawn Chacon, Oscar Villarreal, Jose Valverde, Doug Brocail, Geoff Geary. Wesley Wright, a rookie. Shawn Chacon, the only SP added, brings a lifetime 96 ERA+, and inconsistent production. Excellent 2005, bad 2006. Short, but decent 2007. Chacon has never pitched more than 160 innings -and that was in his rookie year. Jose Valverde's 177 OPS+, last season, is fantastic. Brocail, Geary and Villarreal bring good 2007 seasons and good lifetime ERAs+: 110, 116, and 112, respectively.

    Subtractions: Jason Jennings, Woody Williams, Brad Lidge, Matt Albers, Trever Miller, Chad Qualls. Qualls, a lifetime 129 ERA+, will be misssed. Brad Lidge time in Houston was up. Same for Jason Jennings. Woody Williams and Minute Maid, not a good match.

    Overall, the starting rotation is below average. Besides Roy Oswalt, a lifetime 142 ERA+ pitcher, there is no consistent above average pitcher. Only Chris Sampson, with a 109 OPS+ in only 155.2 innings, has above average career numbers. It looks like a "Roy Oswalt and pray for rain" rotation. Chacon should be an improvement over Woody Williams, though. The bullpen looks strong. There is a better closer with Valverde. The bullpen, now, has three reliable arms, with recent success: Geary, Brocail, and Villarreal. An improvement over last year.

    Evaluation
    2008 should be a better season. BP is a little tough on the Astros. If the starting pitching, somehow, manages an average season, the Astros will be able to win, with a slightly above average offense and the ability to keep leads late in games. Then, the Astros can have a season with 82-85 wins. The NL Central is not a very strong division. That should help. But, if the starting pitching is as expected -i.e., below average-, it will be another losing season, likely in the 74-77 range.